Apple Just Won't Stop

After a very busy fall of Apple product launches, I’ll be honest, I was looking forward to a few months of quiet before it was time to start diving into the rumors again. So much for that.

CREDIT: SHUTTERSTOCK

CREDIT: SHUTTERSTOCK

Over the past week, Mark Gurman at Bloomberg dropped a series of stories about upcoming products, including new MacBook Pros, anew iMac, and an Apple-branded display that won’t set you back $6,000. Oh, and an expensive pair ofvirtual reality (VR) glasses.

All of that is interesting, but it's also dangerously close to "too good to be true." Still, sometimes good things do come to those who wait, and there's no question we've been waiting quite a while for a few of these.

VR Glasses

Apple has reportedly been working on a VR product for a while, but so far it’s been limited to the capabilities of the LiDAR sensor on the iPhone 12 and iPad Pro. The Bloomberg report says that the company is planning a set of VR goggles that would be expensive, powerful, and possibly have a fan.

I suspect that if this is a real product, it’s primarily designed for developers to have a platform for creating experiences that could be used on a later product, probably with augmented reality (AR) instead of VR.

iMac

The iMac is the Mac most in need of a facelift. That doesn’t mean it looks bad, but the design is starting to get a little old, and with Apple Silicon, there is plenty of room to improve the design now that you can cut down on the room used for physical hard drives and cooling.

It’s easy to assume that the design will follow the ProDisplay XDR, though I doubt it will be quite that extreme. I think it will likely have far smaller bezels and more closely follow what has been called the “iPad Pro” design language of flat sides. But, I think it will still look like an iMac.

I don’t think Apple wants to sell a computer that just looks like something else it already sells. Each of Apple’s products has its own feel and brand, and I don’t think ever going to not be the case.

5K Monitor

Whatever they do to the iMac, all they need to do is sell a version of the monitor without the iMac. That’s literally what people want—just give us the amazing 5K display from the 27-inch iMac, without the computer. Obviously, it won’t look exactly the same, for the reasons I’ve already mentioned. From a display technology perspective, however, this should be an absolute no brainer.

There are more than enough people who want a great display for use with their MacBook Pro, or even a Mac Pro, who don’t need the extreme performance of the XDR. Just give the rest of us something that looks great, in terms of design and performance, and something that feels like it fits on a desk with a MacBook Pro.

I’m sure there will be a lot of unhappy YouTubers and tech podcasters who will be bummed they spent $6,000 on something almost no one needs, when they could have waited and gotten something amazing for a lot less.

MacBook Pros

I saved this for last, because--honestly--it's easily the biggest deal to me. To understand the rumored changes to the MacBook Pro, basically think about everything anyone has said they wanted Apple to do for the last few years and imagine Apple did it. That’s basically what we’re expecting.

Between Gurman’s report, and another report from Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple plans to drop the Touch Bar, add a larger 14-inch display on the smaller MacBook Pro, bring back MagSafe charging, add ports like the SD card reader, and give the design a slight update to include more squared-off sides.

Oh, and it will have whatever comes after the M1.

Honestly, that’s probably the only thing that really matters to most people, though I’d definitely be a fan of a 14-inch MacBook Pro with no Touch Bar, and an SD card reader.

Facebook & Google vs. Everyone

We can debate the extent to which Facebook and Google are responsible for the change in how people interact with online content. That isn’t the same, however, as saying they are responsible for the current state of online publishing—which, to say the least, is struggling.

Credit: Shutterstock

Credit: Shutterstock

I wrote about it for Business Insider last week, and I think it’s important context for the bigger conversation:


There’s no question that the internet changed almost everything about publishing, but contrary to popular belief, the internet is much larger than just Google and Facebook.

The most significant factor that led to the current state of publishing was that the internet made it easy to reach a mass audience in a way that you simply couldn’t through physical distribution. A small publication in any town in American might have 10,000 print subscribers. Put the same content online, and suddenly you could reach 10 or 100 times that. And if your content is widely shared, maybe 1,000 times more.

At the same time, it didn’t cost you anything more to make the content available. You didn’t have to print 10 times as many copies of your newspaper.

This represented an extraordinary opportunity because advertising has always been a greater driver of revenue for newspapers than circulation. In 1991, for example, advertising was responsible for more than 75% of total newspaper revenue generated, according to 
Pew Research. In 2006, that piece of the total revenue pie was up to 83%. 

As the internet made it possible to reach a mass audience, advertisers were more than willing to pay for ads. That was very good news for publishers, and they wasted no time putting their content online, often for free to users.

At the same time, the internet was also unbundling the services you used to find in your local paper. Content became specialized, with different sites representing every imaginable niche. Where you used to check out the classified section in the paper, you could now visit Craigslist, or eBay, or 
Cars.com. Instead of the “help wanted” section, you would visit Indeed or LinkedIn.

All that was good for consumers who suddenly had access to infinitely more information. But for publishers, all those things represented revenue that suddenly went elsewhere. More importantly, it represented traffic that went elsewhere.


The bigger problem for publishers is that what’s happening now is the logical conclusion of the moves they made. Those moves looked like a brilliant strategy for scooping up money 10 years ago. Today, there’s simply too much competition to continue to sustain traditional publishers using the same business model.

That doesn’t mean that forcing Facebook and Google to pay is the right solution. From that same piece:


Forcing Google and Facebook to pay publishers for links to their content is a bad idea because it feels like a solution, but it isn’t. When you feel like you have a solution to a problem, you stop addressing it. But that doesn’t mean it actually starts getting better.

Publishers are expected to lose as much as 
$20 billion in ad revenue over the next three years, according to research from PwC, a far cry from the $1 billion Google promised. That’s hardly a solution to what’s becoming an increasingly dire problem.

The idea shouldn’t be that the government look for ways to maintain the status quo by taxing new technologies, especially when those new technologies are far more efficient and desirable for users. Unfortunately, that’s far too often the default response whenever technology disrupts an established industry, but it rarely helps.

A better solution is to acknowledge that advertising might not be the best or only viable business model for publishers. For example, 
The New York Timessays it’s seen the revenue it generates from online subscribers outpace that of print subscriptions. And as advertising revenue fell 30%, the revenue it’s generating from those online subscribers grew 34%.

If Google and Facebook want to find ways to help publishers and increase the viability of journalism, that’s definitely a good thing. But don’t mistake it for a solution to the real problem, which is that the way people value, find, and consume information is different. The business model has to be, too.

The HomePod mini Sounds Really Good, but That's Not the Point

The first thing that occurred to me when I opened a pair of HomePod minis was that they are, in fact, very mini. Like, fit in the palm of my hand, mini. I can confidently say that if you buy one, even knowing that it is very small, it will seem smaller than you expect once you have it in your hand.

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It would be hard to overstate the importance of the size of the HomePod mini, but I’ll have to come back to that in a minute. What most people want to know is whether they sound any good, especially considering that small size.

My general impression is that, yes, they sound good. Not amazing, but good for what they are. They most certainly sound better than an Echo Dot or Nest Home Mini. On the other hand, the HomePod mini is twice the cost of either of those smart speakers.

Compared to a Nest Audio, or even an Echo, the HomePod mini is punching above its weight, despite carrying the same price tag. Both of those devices will give you better sound, and more of it. It certainly doesn’t compete with the original HomePod, at least not on sound.

You can pair two HomePod minis into a stereo pair. You can even use them as a stereo set of speakers for your AppleTV. I set them up that way to give it a test. While they are definitely better than the speakers built-in to my 10-year-old Samsung plasma, and they put out just enough sound to fill our living room with its vaulted 18-foot ceiling, they aren’t a substitute for any kind of home theater set up.

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That said, I’m not sure sound is the reason Apple made the HomePod mini.

To understand what I mean, consider that Apple most certainly did make the original HomePod focused on the quality of the sound the company could fit into a small speaker. To that end, it succeeded. The HomePods are probably the best-sounding speaker of that size that you can buy. You just have to be willing to spend $300 a piece to get it.

As a result, very few people have been willing to spend that money. It just wasn’t worth it. You could get a smart speaker that sounded really good, was much, much smarter, and cost at least $100 less. For roughly the same price, you could get a device that sounded as good, but—in some cases—had both Google Assistant and Alexa.

That single fact is why there are a few hundred million devices powered by Alexa and Google Assistant, instead of Siri. Especially that part about being smarter.

Which, I think, brings us to the real reason Apple made the HomePod mini—Siri. In my experience with the HomePod mini over the past few days, Siri has grown up in a big way. That’s important if Apple is ever going to gain share in an increasingly important market—your home.

That’s why I think the HomePod mini is so interesting—because it represents Apple’s best effort yet to gain a foothold in the smart home. Until now, Siri lived mostly on your iPhone or iPad. Sure, she’s also on the Mac, but I can’t think of the last time I tried to summon her there. In fact, as I set up my M1 MacBook Air this week, and an Intel version for my wife a few months ago, I realize I instinctively disable the “enable Ask Siri” feature.

Siri, and by extension, HomeKit, Apple’s smart home platform, has a lot of work to do to catch up. Not only does it have far fewer of the usual speaker-shaped devices out in the wild, the ones it does have are far less capable at doing the things people buy those devices to do. Most of that is because of Siri.

That’s a problem, because both Alexa and Google Assistant are very good. And, if Apple wanted to own the devices you use to power your home in the same way they own the ones you carry in your pocket, it needed to be as good.

Both Amazon and Google also have far more support for smart devices, though HomeKit has come quite a long way. In addition, the Project Connected initiative supported by all three companies will make connecting to those devices much easier in the future. Having little Siri devices that are actually affordable is really important to Apple if it’s ever going to catch up.

To that end, the HomePod mini is very good—at Siri. It’s far more responsive than the original HomePod, even more so than my iPhone. It also has a few tricks, like the ability to send announcements to or from your devices.

Most importantly, the HomePod mini is also the best Apple device at knowing when you’re trying to activate Siri, hearing what you’ve said, and performing the right command. All of those are pretty critical features for a device you might put in a room to, say, control the lights—or anything else really. That Apple has finally gotten it right should be music to your ears.

Thoughts About Using the M1 MacBook Air

When you buy a computer, there are certainly a range of things that matter. For most people, the best way to measure its value is its ability to do the things they need it to do, with the fewest number of compromises. Every device, after all, is about compromises.

You can, for example, get a lightweight laptop that is easy to take with you, but it probably won’t be the most powerful option available. If all you do is email, use a web browser, or occasionally watch videos, that’s probably fine. On the other hand, if your needs go beyond that, you might opt for something powerful, knowing it means it will likely be heavier or that it likely won’t last the entire day on battery power.

Either way, you’re choosing where you’re willing to compromise.

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The funny thing about the M1 MacBook Air is that it doesn’t feel like a compromise. It’s still the same lightweight ultrabook it’s always been, only it’s now also the fastest laptop you’ll likely have ever used. Oh, and the battery lasts a very long time.

My point isn’t that the M1 MacBook Air doesn’t have trade-offs, it does. It can only be configured to 16GB of “Unified Memory,” which is shared between CPU and GPU tasks. It also only has two USB 4/Thunderbolt ports, though I legitimately can’t remember the last time I used more than two ports on my 2020 13-inch MacBook Pro. That this machine only has two doesn’t feel like a compromise, especially considering what you can do with them.

That’s an important distinction. The computer you use should feel like it’s capable of doing what you want it to do. That it can’t do other things—things that you don’t need it to do—is irrelevant. You didn’t buy it to do those things, so they aren’t compromises.

I use my laptop for writing, online research, editing photos and video, and—like everyone else right now—for Zoom meetings. For every one of those things, this M1 MacBook Air is significantly faster. It loads apps faster, it handles images and video files smoother, and it does it all while using far less battery than any laptop I’ve used before.

Even using apps that aren’t natively compiled for the M1 works transparently. Other than a one-time dialogue box asking if you want to install Rosetta 2 (which takes almost no time at all), the process is seamless. There’s a very real chance that if you fall in this category, you won’t even know you’re still running x86 apps.

If you use Microsoft Word or Adobe Photoshop, for example, it will take slightly longer to load the first time, but after that, you’ll just use it the way you always have. In fact, it’ll probably run better depending on how old the Mac you’re currently using is.

In every other way, it’s a MacBook Air, only better. It has the same keyboard and trackpad, which were already best-in-class. It has the same TouchID. It actually has a better Retina display with the addition of P3 color gamut.

Well, there is one other way it’s different, and it’s hard to believe I almost didn’t mention it. Perhaps that’s because it’s easy to forget. The MacBook Air manages to be the most capable laptop I’ve ever used, and it doesn’t have a fan. It edits 4K video, and it doesn’t have a fan. It can bounce an hour-long podcast ridiculously fast, without a fan. I can open browser tabs until I can’t think of anything else to search for online, and I’ll never hear the fan kick on, because, there is no fan.

Others, like John Gruber, have mentioned that they never heard the fan on the M1 MacBook Pro either. It’s impressive that the M1 rarely needs a fan in that device, or, if it is using a fan, that it somehow manages to be ultra-quiet. Even more impressive is that the MacBook Air doesn’t even have one.

Whether it’s impressive to you that the Air doesn’t need a fan, consider that when using it, it absolutely feels impressive. And that intangible feeling matters. It’s what makes a computer or device enjoyable to use.

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In the case of the M1 MacBook Air, it most definitely is enjoyable to use. By the way, I’ve been working on it now for almost half a day (since about 6:20 a.m.) without it being plugged in and it’s still at around 70% battery. Nothing about that feels like a compromise. It feels like what a device like this should be. Finally, with the MacBook Air, it is.

The M1 Mac's Are Ridiculous

I don’t know how else to say it. They really are ridiculous. I, of course, mean that in a good way. What Apple has managed to do with the three products it announced last week is nothing short of extraordinary. Sure, it’s absolutely true that it’s probably not a bad idea to wait and see if they actually live up to the claims Apple made. However, if they do, they’re completely ridiculous.

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Apple was widely expected to focus on increased efficiency when it introduced the first Macs featuring their own M1 processor. That was the entire reason for making the switch from Intel’s chips—they simply weren’t getting the kind of gains in efficiency and performance that Apple demanded.

Apple, of course, has had some experience in this area, making chips for the past decade for the iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and Apple TV. Really, it’s gotten quite good at it. The A14 chip in the iPhone 12 and 4th-generation iPad Air is the fastest mobile processor, and not by a little.

Still, what Apple did in the MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, and Mac mini is something of an order of magnitude different. Apple’s claims really say it all.

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Now, I’ve heard a lot of people say that Apple’s claims—especially on this chart—aren’t particularly helpful. What exactly does Apple mean by “Latest PC laptop chip?” That’s a fair question, and the answer is that we just don’t know. What we do know is that Apple is saying the M1 chip is twice as fast at 10W as that chip.

We also know that when compared to the previous Intel-based Macs, the new versions perform significantly better. The MacBook Air, for example, is supposedly up to three and a half times faster, and gets 50% better battery life. Honestly, if that’s true, I don’t really care what the “latest PC laptop chip” is. What I care about is that the M1 should be better for almost everything I need it to do on a regular basis. Isn’t that what really matters?

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Look, I think that it’s worth reserving final judgment until I have a chance to actually use one, which I will next week, but for anyone who was concerned that Apple might not be able to design a chip that competes with Intel, I think we can agree that’s not an issue.

I wrote a piece at Inc.com last week talking about “why” Apple was making this transition. Unlike the switch to Intel, when Apple had to make the switch just to keep up, this is different. Back then, the PowerPC lagged far behind Intels processors, and Macs were slow compared to their PC peers. That’s simply not true now.

From my column:

Also, the Mac has literally never been more popular. Apple sold more than $9 billion in Macs in the past quarter, a record by more than $1.5 billion. That may pale in comparison with the sheer amount of iPhones the company sells, but where the iPhone may be the most popular device Apple sells, the Mac has always been its soul.

That’s the most important thing to know about this transition. For the past 15 years, the company has had to sell a little piece of its soul to Intel to stay competitive. Now, however, Apple is taking back control over its destiny.

Consider that Apple isn’t doing this because it has to. Unlike 15 years ago, when the company switched to Intel processors, Apple currently has access to the very best processors available on the market. That makes it directly competitive if it just keeps doing what it’s always done. Apple, however, isn’t interested in simply shipping the same Macs.

I think a better way of understanding it is to see what Apple is doing as leveraging everything it has learned, and the ecosystem it has built around the iPhone, to build a better Mac. It won’t be like the iPhone, it’ll be the Mac, only the best version of the Mac. It’ll be the version Apple always intended, even if it had to take a detour for a decade and a half.

I think, if nothing else, Apple demonstrated this to be true. It’s making this switch because it wants to, and more importantly, because it can. That alone is enough to make me optimistic that they’ll be able to live up to the hype.

The Apple Thing to Do

Apple isn’t wrong, but that doesn’t make it right. 

Despite plenty of commentary and opinions on Apple’s fight over control of the App Store, I don’t think there’s any other way to look at it. Even if you don’t like Apple at all, I feel like we should all be able to agree that Apple is allowed to create rules for its platform. In that regard, at least, Apple isn’t wrong. The issue, then, is which rules are reasonable, and whether Apple is applying them in a way that stifles innovation or oppresses developers. 

That’s where things start to get complicated.

Credit: Shutterstock

Credit: Shutterstock

A Very Brief History

Obviously, for anyone paying attention, much of this came to a head when Epic Games, the maker of Fortnite, waged war against Apple (and to a lesser degree, Google), in order to launch a PR campaign against the App Store. Epic’s goal, made apparent through its legal filings, isn’t that it wants monetary damages from Apple or Google, but that it wants—ultimately—to be able to drop its own App Store right on an iPhone and sell games, collecting its own commission from developers instead.

To recap, Epic added its own payment method for purchasing game credits, known as V-Bucks, within an update to Fortnite, bypassing Apple’s in-app purchasing system and, as a result, Apple’s 30 percent commission. At the same time, Epic reduced the price of those V-Bucks purchased with its new method, and in every other version of Fortnite, in an attempt to highlight that Apple was taking what it views as an unfair cut. 

Apple, as expected, removed Fortnite from the App Store, though it did not do anything about existing copies of the game already installed on iPhones. Almost immediately, Epic launched a PR campaign that included a parody video of the iconic “1984” ad, as well as an antitrust lawsuit claiming Apple is exerting unfair control over the App Store. 

And that was all a week ago Thursday.

Then, on Monday, Apple told Epic it would terminate its developer account if it didn’t roll back the changes that are in clear violation of the App Store rules. Epic then filed a motion for a restraining order, saying that if Apple is allowed to terminate its developer account, it would be catastrophic to its business. 

Of course, Epic’s timing isn’t an accident. Apple has been under intense scrutiny for how it manages the App Store, with Tim Cook appearing before Congress last month to answer questions on the subject. Before that, the company engaged in a public battle with Basecamp, the developers of the Hey email app, which had been rejected from the App Store because it doesn’t allow users to sign up in the app. Eventually the two sides seemed to find a compromise with Hey allowed in the App Store with a slight modification in that users can now sign up for a free trial with a dummy email.  

More recently, Microsoft launched a shot at Apple because the iPhone maker won’t allow the xCloud streaming gaming service in the iOS App Store. Facebook did the same, though I hesitate to even mention it because Facebook’s gaming app is hardly relevant in this particular story. Or, in any story.

Before we get too far, we should be careful not to lump every developer with a gripe about the App Store into the same category. The reason xCloud isn’t in the App Store isn’t the same as the reason Fortnite isn’t. Epic got the boot because it clearly violated the terms of the developer agreement when it simply dropped in its in-app purchase system bypassing Apple. There was no question it was going to get banned. In fact, Epic was counting on it.

Plenty of developers have a beef with Apple right now, but their specific complaints are quite different. Sure, they all center on the control Apple exerts over its platform, as well as the 30 percent fee it collects on in-app purchases, but there are still enough differences that we should handle them individually. 

First, Fortnite.

Epic Clearly Is Wrong

Epic doesn’t like Apple’s rules. That much is obvious. What’s also become obvious is that there are a lot of developers who feel the same. That’s certainly a reasonable conversation to have, but Epic’s move wasn’t reasonable.

At first glance, it appears Epic just doesn’t want to pay Apple a cut. Okay, that’s reasonable. Epic is a business, and a very successful one at that. It makes sense that it doesn’t want to share with Apple if there’s any way to avoid it. But there’s nothing particularly noble about Epic’s move. It’s purely a business decision.

The bigger reason, at least according to Epic, is because its CEO, Tim Sweeney, wants to make his own app store available on iOS and Android devices. And it doesn’t want to have to share with Apple.

This isn’t even a new fight for Epic. Sweeney has long railed against the App Store policies, specifically the cut it takes. But even more, Sweeney has far grander ambitions for Epic and it includes owning the space between games and gamers, without Apple as a middleman. Epic makes as much clear, without even hiding its real motivation.

From Epic’s lawsuit against Apple:

But for Apple’s illegal restraints, Epic would provide a competing App Store on iOS devices, which would allow iOS users to download apps in an innovative, curated store and would provide users the choice to use Epic’s or another third-party’s in-app payment processing tool.”

As Rene Ritchie points out on YouTube, the goal is “that they’re no longer paying Apple or Google 30 percent, but having other developers pay them, much like other developers do on the PC version of the Epic Game Store today.”

There is zero chance Apple is going to allow that, at least not in a way that would make Epic happy. It wouldn’t be good for Apple, and I don’t know that you could argue that it would be good for users. There are very real benefits to users from the App Review process. There are drawbacks as well, which we’ll get to shortly, but on the whole, Apple’s approach prevents all kinds of malware and other nefarious content from ending up on your iPhone. 

That doesn’t mean all the apps in the App Store are good—many (if not most) aren’t. A lot are garbage, but they aren’t going to brick your iPhone or steal your credit card information. They can’t even get your credit card information. 

Presumably, Epic wants to offer a competing store for app downloads because it thinks Apple takes too large a cut, and that competition would be good for consumers. That might be true, but Sweeney didn’t build a $17 billion company, with investments from Sony, Chinese tech giant Tencent, and Nintendo, without being shrewdly focused on the bottom line. That’s exactly what’s happening here.

To be clear, in Epic’s case, Apple isn’t taking a cut of a subscription fee, or a fee for a tangible good. Apple doesn’t even take a fee for tangible products you might sell in an app. Epic literally sells fake money in exchange for real money. And that fake money is used to buy virtual goods (also fake), like dance moves or skins for your avatar. 

There is literally no incremental cost to Epic to exchange real money for fake money, and the price of the virtual goods is entirely arbitrary. Epic has claimed in the past that the 30 percent cut is detrimental to developers who have to front the entire cost of game development. Again, the game is free, the money is all in exchange for completely intangible things, one of which is to speed up the time it takes to advance to another level.

Think about that—the game developer builds elements that it knows are a hassle and extract ransom from players in exchange for eliminating those completely arbitrary annoyances. Imagine if every time you went to check your email, Apple told you that you’d have to wait three minutes. Or, if you don’t want to wait, you can use some Apple credits—that you paid for with real money—to get in immediately.  That’s literally most games on the iPhone (or Android, for that matter). 

There is literally no scenario where Apple could get away with that. But it’s exactly how gaming companies make their money. It’s an extortion racket that makes casinos jealous. 

It’s also a business decision that Epic has made. 

In the case of Fornite, at least, the issue is simply that Epic doesn’t like that Apple is skimming off a piece of that action. Never mind that Microsoft and Sony take the same cut on their gaming platforms. (Again, we’ll get back to that.)

Maybe Epic can’t have a problem with the cut Microsoft and Sony take because it can’t survive without Xbox and Playstation, but doesn’t feel like the same is true of the iPhone.

The company’s CEO Tim Sweeney tells GamesIndustry.biz that this is in part to build “a direct relationship with all our customers”, but that the decision is also “motivated by economic efficiency” — namely avoiding the need to pay Google a 30 per cent cut of all revenue generated by the game.

“The 30 per cent store tax is a high cost in a world where game developers’ 70 per cent must cover all the cost of developing, operating, and supporting their games,” he explains.

“There’s a rationale for this on console where there’s enormous investment in hardware, often sold below cost, and marketing campaigns in broad partnership with publishers. But on open platforms, 30 per cent is disproportionate to the cost of the services these stores perform, such as payment processing, download bandwidth, and customer service.”

On Twitter, Sweeney justified his different positions regarding game consoles vs iOS and Android:

Epic seems to feel like it gets enough value from the fee it pays console makers, but not from Apple. Never mind that Apple builds and supports the tools required to create iOS apps. Never mind that Apple invests in hardware that is capable of running apps and games built on Epic’s Unreal Engine.

Of course, Epic also takes a cut on its own app store with in its games. Epic might argue that it only takes 12 or 15 percent, but the argument hasn’t been that Apple takes too large a cut, but that Apple takes a cut at all. Tim Sweeney says he’s against middlemen, but seems to be just fine with them, as long as it’s him. 

Epic might have a moral point to make in terms of whether Apple should have as much control as it does, but it certainly went about it in a way that cost it the moral high ground. It doesn’t matter how much you dislike something, or how many people agree with you, you still don’t get to simply decide you’re not going to abide by the terms you agreed to and not expect to get booted.

Of course, that was exactly what Epic was hoping for.

The problem is, Epic isn’t acting in good faith. There’s no question that Epic made this move intentionally and with the knowledge that it was breaking the rules. It also was fully aware of the consequences of such an action. It’s hard to give it credit for starting a moral revolution against Apple when its motivation isn’t pure and it’s tactics aren’t moral.

It’s pretty clear that even if you think Apple has far too much control and is taking far too large a cut, Epic is wrong. You can even think that the point Epic is trying to make is correct, but everything about the way it went about it is wrong. This isn’t civil disobedience, it’s a coup attempt.

No Soliciting

Apple isn’t going to allow Epic, or anyone else, to add its own app store to the iPhone. There are plenty of reasons for this, and money is only one of them. While I actually think there are even better reasons, let’s assume for a moment that money is the only reason. Before you think that’s a selfish reason, consider that no business anywhere is okay with a vendor standing inside their front door attempting to sell on its own the products it also offers on the shelf. 

Or, would Walmart ever allow Amazon to set up a tent sale in its parking lot? Of course not. And we’d never criticize Walmart on the grounds that its stifling competition. The opposite is true—it’s competing, which means that it is making decisions, by definition, to advance its own business against all the others. 

Sure, sometimes businesses enter into partnerships when they feel it would be mutually beneficial. Again, those are decisions made to advance individual businesses. The fact that one business is willing to make a specific decision isn’t a reason that every business should be required to do the same.

In this case, Epic’s goal is clear—it wants to cut Apple out of a space it would rather occupy itself. That’s is certainly Epic’s prerogative, but it shouldn’t be surprised Apple isn’t having any of it. 

Microsoft Is Also Wrong

While much of the focus is on the Epic battle, mostly because it is obviously the most public, the irony is that there are businesses with a much stronger case to make against Apple’s rules. Take Microsoft, for example. 

Microsoft wants to bring its streaming game service to iOS, previously known as xCloud, which would allow iPhone users to play a catalog of major games like HALO via a monthly subscription fee. I’m not going to get to far into the technical aspects of how a gaming service that simply streams the games from a central server works, except to say that reviews seem to be overwhelmingly positive. People who know far more than I do about gaming argue that this is the future of video games. I have no reason to doubt that.

Apple, however, isn’t having it. 

According to Microsoft:

“Our testing period for the Project xCloud preview app for iOS has expired. Unfortunately, we do not have a path to bring our vision of cloud gaming with Xbox Game Pass Ultimate to gamers on iOS via the Apple App Store. Apple stands alone as the only general purpose platform to deny consumers from cloud gaming and game subscription services like Xbox Game Pass.”

You might argue that the reason Apple rejected xCloud, along with Google Stadia and Facebook Games before it, is that it already offers a competing gaming service, Apple Arcade. Maybe, but I doubt it.

According to Apple, the main reason it won’t allow streaming game services is that it isn’t able to review every app individually. In a statement, Apple said: 

“The App Store was created to be a safe and trusted place for customers to discover and download apps, and a great business opportunity for all developers. Before they go on our store, all apps are reviewed against the same set of guidelines that are intended to protect customers and provide a fair and level playing field to developers.

Our customers enjoy great apps and games from millions of developers, and gaming services can absolutely launch on the App Store as long as they follow the same set of guidelines applicable to all developers, including submitting games individually for review, and appearing in charts and search. In addition to the App Store, developers can choose to reach all iPhone and iPad users over the web through Safari and other browsers on the App Store.”

As I’ve thought about it, while the two arguments look different (Epic and Microsoft), there is actually a common thread, which is the ability to remove the middleman. Microsoft isn’t specifically asking for its own “store,” but rather wants to be able to simply stream games from another source, within a single app in a way many have compared to Netflix. I happen to think that’s the wrong analogy, and I’ll explain why in a minute.

Microsoft is wrong because it wants to define the boundaries of Apple’s platform differently than it has defined its own. Did you happen to notice the interesting little carve out Microsoft makes for itself when it explains why Xbox Game Pass Ultimate (because Microsoft is really second only to Google when it comes to product names), isn’t available on the iPhone. 

“Apple stands alone as the only general purpose platform to deny consumers from cloud gaming”

Microsoft wants to argue over the idea that the iPhone is a “general purpose platform,” and therefore is subject to some specific set of rules that should govern how Apple makes that platform available to developers. 

There are two problems. Inherent in Microsoft’s argument is the acknowledgement that there are some types of computing devices for which the available content and services can be tightly controlled. The Xbox is one of those “console” devices. Microsoft wants to make it clear that it doesn’t think the iPhone is one. 

Here, Microsoft is wrong.

Why Netflix Is the Wrong Analogy

A brief aside about Netflix. I’ve listened to, and read, many reasonable arguments that compare streaming games, for example, to Netflix. I said before that I don’t think this is the right analogy.

Okay, fine, a video game is simply video streamed down and interactive commands streamed back. Technically that’s the same as what happens in Netflix, except, it isn’t. 

No matter how many times you press pause and then play, the episode of Stranger Things doesn’t change change. It’s linear video and its frames all occurs in the same order. Yes, you can skip around and watch those frames in any order you want, but first, that’s nonsense, and second, you still didn’t change the story, you just messed it up.

That isn’t what happens with video games. The interactions you have with a video game determine the story. It’s actually interactive. 

It’s also different because of the user experience and expectation. Videos on Netflix also don’t have the ability to interact with other aspects of your device in the way an app potentially can. Apple isn’t worried that a Netflix original is going to suddenly drop its own payment method in order to fast-forward the film past the credits, for example. The same can’t be said for games, and Apple isn’t giving up control over that part of the experience, at least not when it comes to video games.  

A Third Type of Thing

I tend to agree with John Gruber that the iPhone is a console, if for no other reason than Apple considers it such. It’s just happens to be the most versatile console ever made, with far greater scope and scale than one that simply plays games. 

Of course, there are like 65 million Xbox users, compared to the 1.5 billion people with iOS devices. The stakes are of no comparable scale. 

Though I think that might also mean that it isn’t. As I think about it, the argument between “console” and “general purpose platform” isn’t the right one because I don’t think that a smartphone is necessarily either, but is—at the same time—both. It’s a third type of thing. 

A smartphone is part general purpose computer in that it does a wide range of things, and part console in that the user experience is tightly controlled. 

You could even argue that the iPhone was clearly designed originally to be fully in the console category. Third-party apps weren’t even a thing at first, aside from Google Maps, but there wasn’t an App Store to download them. 

Even after Apple added the ability to download other apps, the reason it exerted so much control was largely because it felt the need to protect the user experience in order to be sure the thing was good. And by “thing” I don’t mean apps, I mean the iPhone. Apple’s control over the App Store is, at its core, meant to make the iPhone the best possible user experience. 

That doesn’t mean Apple doesn’t also benefit from that control, it absolutely does. The App Store is ridiculously profitable for Apple, and drives most of the growth in its crucial services division. 

But, I’m not entirely sure it’s fair to say that profit is the primary driver behind the control. Sure, you might think I’m naive, that’s fine. Except, that control of the user experience is exactly what has made the iPhone so popular. That refined user experience is why an iPhone is far easier to use than a computer. It’s why my grandmother could use her iPhone long after she could no longer figure out how to check her email on her Windows PC. 

Control isn’t necessarily a bad thing unless it leads to an unfair monopoly.

Defining the Market

By the way, not all monopolies are inherently unfair or anticompetitive. Obviously, if Apple has a monopoly over a market, it depends on how you define that market. Epic wants to define that market as “the distribution of software applications (“apps”) to users of mobile computing devices like smartphones and tablets, and (ii) the processing of consumers’ payments for digital content used within iOS mobile apps (“in-app content”).”

Basically, Epic is accusing Apple of having a monopoly over the iPhone, which, I mean, of course it does. Apple makes the iPhone. That reality is neither complicated or controversial. 

This, by the way, explains Tim Cook’s statement when he testified before the Antitrust Subcommittee of the House Judiciary Committee. In it he made it clear that Apple views the App Store as a “feature” of the iPhone. 

If that’s true, then of course Apple has a monopoly, just like it has a monopoly on the camera. No one can sell cameras that you can swap in for the one that Apple built in when it was assembled. It’s a feature of the device. Also, no one is complaining about it. No one accuses Apple of being monopolistic because you are limited to the functionality of the camera that it chooses or that it’s unreasonably restrictive that you can’t add one from someone else. 

Of course, where that argument breaks down is because in many cases Apple not only offers the market, but also offers products within that market, putting competitors at a disadvantage. Spotify would have to pay Apple 30 percent in order to sign up customers via in-app purchases. Apple Music, on the other hand, doesn’t have to pay that same tax. 

Except, we don’t make that argument when it comes to iPhone cases sold at the Apple Store. Apple makes iPhone cases. So do a lot of other companies. Many of those other companies sell their cases in Apple’s retail stores. When they do, Apple gets a cut. That’s not controversial at all. Does Apple have a monopoly on the market of “things sold in the Apple Store?” Of course it does, it’s Apple’s store. 

The question isn’t whether Apple can exert this level of control, but rather whether it should. Those are very different questions, and it really gets to the core of the problem.

Apple Is Right, Sort Of

Apple’s Developer Program License Agreement is pretty clear on the consequences for doing what Epic did. Section 11.2 says:

This Agreement and all rights and licenses granted by Apple hereunder and any services provided hereunder will terminate, effective immediately upon notice from Apple:

(f) if You engage, or encourage others to engage, in any misleading, fraudulent, improper, unlawful or dishonest act relating to this Agreement, including, but not limited to, misrepresenting the nature of Your submitted Application (e.g., hiding or trying to hide functionality from Apple’s review, falsifying consumer reviews for Your Application, engaging in payment fraud, etc.).

There’s really no way around it, Epic clearly violated the terms, and did so intentionally. In fact, it didn’t just do so for the purpose of skirting the rules, it did it just to pick a fight. I don’t think there’s any way to argue that Apple isn’t acting within its right to terminate Epic’s membership in the Apple Developer Program (ADP). 

You could even argue that Apple is acting with a measure of restraint. According to those terms, Apple could have terminated Epic “immediately upon notice.” Instead,  Apple gave Epic a way out. 

Apple’s statement:

The App Store is designed to be a safe and trusted place for users and a great business opportunity for all developers. Epic has been one of the most successful developers on the App Store, growing into a multibillion dollar business that reaches millions of iOS customers around the world. We very much want to keep the company as part of the Apple Developer Program and their apps on the Store.

The problem Epic has created for itself is one that can easily be remedied if they submit an update of their app that reverts it to comply with the guidelines they agreed to and which apply to all developers. We won’t make an exception for Epic because we don’t think it’s right to put their business interests ahead of the guidelines that protect our customers.

It’s true, Epic’s problem is of its own making, and any collateral damage that might occur to third-parties as a result of its action is Epic’s fault. That includes Unreal Engine, which Epic points out would be unavailable to developers who want to make games for iOS if the company is no longer allowed access to the tools that make that possible. 

Apple is also right when it comes to streaming games. Well, it’s right in the sense that they aren’t allowed under the current “rules.” Should those rules change? Possibly. 

Many of the arguments that I’ve heard for why Apple is wrong are basically just that people don’t like the way Apple is managing the App Store. Meaning, Apple is acting in a manner counter to their personal preference. If you want Stadia or xCloud to be available on the iPhone, you think Apple is wrong. If you think you should be able to set up a Hey email account in the app, without Apple taking a cut of the subscription, you probably think Apple’s position is wrong.

Take Facebook for example. It seems as though every business that thinks its service is super valuable to consumers deserves an exception from the App Store’s rules. “hey, people should be able to use Facebook gaming. Apple is wrong.” 

Apple is trying to prevent a scenario where a company like Microsoft, instead of submitting apps to Apple for review, and making them available in the App Store, simply submits its own catalog app.

Microsoft absolutely could submit each app individually and would probably make more money selling them to iPhone users. Microsoft is making a business decision, but wants us to think that it simply doesn’t care for the way Apple is gating access to the iPhone. Except, Microsoft does the same thing with the Xbox. 

By the way, there’s a reason Apple isn’t interested in Epic, or anyone else running its own App Store, or allowing streaming gaming services like xCloud, ahem, Xbox Game Pass Ultimate.

Arguably the main thing Apple cares about is avoiding a scenario where other tech companies, full of very smart developers and shrewd executives, figure out ways to bypass Apple’s control over the user experience on iOS devices.

Every time you create a “rule” that allows for an exception of a certain type of business or app, you open the door to a myriad of unforeseen circumstances. 

Apple simply isn’t going to go down that road until it figures out whether it can do so in a way that still allows it to maintain a level of control over the experience (and probably still get a cut). 

I don’t think the problem is streaming gaming services. I think the problem is the line. Until now, the line has been somewhat clear—you develop an app and submit it to Apple. 

Microsoft and Epic want Apple to move the line.

Where Apple Is Definitely Wrong

I spent a lot of time making the case for why I think Apple is right, but ultimately, I’m not sure that matters. In fact, I believe that being right is probably wrong for Apple and definitely wrong for users.

The problem for Apple, and this isn’t a small issue, is that all of this is creating a worse experience for users, which is something that has long been anathema to Apple. Honestly, that’s the only reason this is an issue—the customer experience is worse because of the standoff between Apple and all of these developers. 

That isn’t to say that I don’t think that the damage the company is doing to its relationship with developers isn’t consequential on its own. It definitely is, and developer relations are—and should be—a very real concern. I even heard John Siracusa on the Accidental Tech Podcast argue that, compared to Microsoft and Sony, Apple has done a terrible job with developer relations. That’s absolutely true.

I do think that part matters, but it’s honestly secondary to the user experience issue. Apple and developers should be able to work out their differences on their own, not in a way that creates a bad experience for the people who give them money. 

Also, there’s the fact that Apple is inviting even more scrutiny from regulators on both sides of the Atlantic which already seem intent on finding a way to force it to change. If Apple thinks avoiding that is important, this isn’t helping. We’ll get back to this in a moment.

I also think there’s an argument to be made that Apple is wrong because it come to a point where the policies it uses to govern the App Store have betrayed the values it was founded on. Primarily that’s the user experience. People want to be able to play games on their iPhone. I mean, I don’t, but a lot of people do. Making it harder for those people to use their device the way they want is wrong. 

Apple is also wrong because the level of control it exerts isn’t actually making it better. Apple isn’t getting better, and neither are its services. 

Take the rumor that Apple is planning to introduce a streaming fitness service. Apple absolutely could start its own fitness video streaming service, but it probably shouldn’t. It probably won’t be better than what’s already available.

AppleTV+ isn’t better than Netflix or Disney+. Apple Arcade is nice, but it isn’t better than xCloud. iCloud is a really useful way to sync pretty much everything across devices, but it isn’t better than Dropbox at file management or collaboration. 

Every product or service is better when there’s competition, and to the extent that Apple can simply strong-arm anyone else who tries to compete in those spaces means the services won’t be better. That’s wrong.

There’s Something Worse Than a Monopoly

By the way, if Apple really does have a monopoly on the market that is App Stores on the iPhone, then it should figure out the best remedy by working with developers now. If it doesn’t, regulators, Congress, and the courts absolutely will act. It’s only a matter of time at this point.

That should worry everyone because there is something worse than a monopoly. It’s called Congress.

Can you imagine if Congress decided that there were specific types of computing devices and then wrote rules governing each? I promise you that if you think it’s bad that Apple gets to decide what you can put on your iPhone, it’ll be far worse if it’s up to the government. 

Apple may think it can win a court case against Epic under the terms of its agreement, and the laws that exist today. The problem is that it very well may be inviting a change to those laws as a result. Apple is a big enough company, and it’s full of enough smart people, that it will certainly find a way to adapt. 

But there is absolutely no question that if Congress passes laws to further regulate the tech industry, the situation for everyone will be worse. It would be far better for Apple to simply find a better way, one that makes everyone as happy as possible without inviting further scrutiny or regulation.

The Apple Thing to Do

That isn’t impossible. Apple’s overarching principle here should be to do what’s right for its users, which—by the way—leads to a better experience, which leads to brand loyalty, which leads to more profit. 

That is literally how Apple became the largest, most profitable, and most valuable company in the world. Steve Jobs was an extraordinarily smart business person who knew that the way to give people exactly what they needed and wanted, when they had no clue what they needed or wanted. That obsessive focus on the user is what made people love Apple in the first place, and powered its growth to become the first $2 trillion company.

But, right now, it feels to many observers—including many long-time loyal Apple users—that the company has lost sign of that focus on the user. What’s even more complicated is that it seems that Apple thinks it’s doing the right thing for the user, but can’t see that it’s actually making the experience worse.

Of course, there’s an argument that what Apple is doing now is absolutely the Apple thing to do, and that’s not a good thing. Meaning that what Apple has become is a very different company than the one that cared about the user experience. Apple very well may believe that its platform is more important than any individual app or developer. 

That wasn’t always true. There was a time that Adobe and Microsoft’s software products were far more important to users than the Mac. If the Mac didn’t support Photoshop or Word, forget about it, the Mac would have no longer been a thing. That’s just reality.

Today, Apple clearly thinks its platform is more important to users than Fortnite or Microsoft or Netflix. If that’s true, it means it also believes its platform is more important than its users, which is bad.

Apple has to figure out the Apple thing to do, the thing that re-centers the conversation on the user. I happen to believe, if it does, it will also benefit both Apple and developers. 

Here’s how:

It would seem that the easiest change would be to allow apps to tell users that they can’t sign up in the app, but can by visiting the service directly. Meaning, in the case of a company like Hey or Netflix, they could simply tell you how to sign up. It’s literally absurd that developers can’t do this. 

But I think Apple should go further. I think that the best experience for the user would be to give developers a choice to direct customers to their service if they also include in-app purchases. Imagine if, when you downloaded the Netflix app and opened it for the first time, you were given two options: Create an Account with Apple and Create an Account with Netflix. 

Button one uses the in-app purchase. Button two takes you to a web view of Netflix’s site. Apple wouldn’t get anything when people click on that button, but iPhone users would get a better experience because it’s available. And, if given this option, companies very well might go for it. They could even charge a little more for the Apple IAP version. Let the customers decide whether they value the security and certainty of Apple, or go through the developer directly.

In the case of Netflix, most people will probably go to the site to sign up, which is fine—Apple isn’t getting anything from Netflix right now anyway. Netflix is a large enough, and trusted enough company on its own that people will do that. 

But imagine if Apple made that option to other developers. You can add a button to direct people to your site to sign up, but you also have to allow in-app subscriptions or purchases. 

There are plenty of services people would never give their information to directly, but would only sign up through the in-app purchase because it’s managed by Apple. Developers can make that call. If you choose not to use in-app purchase, you risk losing customers. 

I suspect there is a correlation between the apps that are able to stand on their own (without the benefit of in-app subscriptions) and those that Apple would prefer to keep on their platform even if they aren’t going to get a cut. Their presence alone adds value to the overall iOS experience, which means it adds value to Apple. 

That’s subscriptions. 

If a business is selling real-world goods, then it doesn’t pay Apple anything. That’s already the case. When you place an order at Starbucks, you use Starbucks’ payment processing system and it keeps all the money. Apple gets nothing. Otherwise, there’s no scenario where you’d ever be able to order a Carmel Frappucino from Starbucks on your iPhone—at least not in an app. 

Then, Apple could, as a good-faith move, change its pricing structure to a tiered system as follows:

  • Subscription services pay 20 percent the first year, 10 percent the second year. 

  • In-app purchases for games are 25 percent. 

  • All other app developers that offer paid app (non-subscription) are a flat 20 percent. 

(If you think those numbers are wrong, okay, tell me what’s better.)

Apple would more than make up for the loss on a percentage basis simply because some developers would likely come back. There are very real benefits to the simplicity of Apple’s payment system including the fact that people trust it and are more likely to sign up or buy when it’s an option.

There’s also the fact that it incentivizes Apple to help developers acquire new customers. The best business partnership is when both sides gets something they want (even if not everything). 

Apple could even waive, or reduce the commission in exchange for a “marketing partnership.” For example, take a company like Netflix. There’s a world where Netflix might consider adding in-app-purchases through Apple if it could negotiate some kind of favorable agreement. 

There’s a part of me that hesitates to even make that suggestion since it seems very “un-Apple-like,” except this is essentially what it did with Amazon Prime Video, for which Apple doesn’t collect a commission when rent or purchase content within the app.

You might argue that would go against Apple’s position that it treats all developers the same, but businesses enter into deals and arrangements all the time that account for the total amount of revenue involved. Call it a volume discount. 

My point is, there’s another way for Apple to do The Apple Thing, without putting its business at risk. When it comes to Apple and developers, sometimes a little good faith can move what otherwise seem like immovable objects. Right now, its unwillingness to do that is putting the user experience at risk, which for many is just as bad.  

Microsoft + Tik Tok: The Odd Couple?

From this morning’s newsletter:

I wrote on Friday that the biggest story in tech was the antitrust hearing last week. It turns out that the weekend brought its own interesting storyline as the news broke that the Trump administration was considering a ban of TikTok as early as Saturday (that didn't happen). 

Credit: Shutterstock

Credit: Shutterstock


Microsoft entered the picture and appeared to be interested in purchasing TikTok until President Trump said he would oppose any effort by a U.S. company to buy the social media app. That put a "pause" on negotiations until Microsoft's CEO had a chance to talk directly with Trump.

Now, both companies appear headed, once again, toward a deal, now that Trump has neither imposed a ban nor expressed further opposition to a potential deal. According to The Wall Street Journal, Microsoft expects to wrap up negotiations by mid-September. 

I wrote yesterday about why Microsoft's move to buy Tik Tok looks risky, but in reality, is quite brilliant

"Why Microsoft? Because it can. The most likely candidate, Facebook, can't possibly buy TikTok. It's not that it can't afford it, at least from a cost perspective. It's just that there's no scenario, especially after its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, appeared before Congress, that a deal could get the approval from the federal agencies that would need to weigh in.

That puts the leverage on the side of Microsoft (or any potential buyer). Buying TikTok may seem like it makes little sense for many reasons, but it could make perfect business sense. Microsoft didn't become one of the most valuable companies on earth by passing up opportunities as good as this one."

Read the full story.

Finally, one more note from the antitrust hearing--this time about Apple. In an answer to a question about the App Store, Tim Cook said that the reason the review process is so rigorous is "because we care so deeply about privacy, and security, and quality."

Those three words--privacy, security, and quality--stuck out to me because they define exactly why people are so loyal to Apple's brand. In fact, I think you could argue they guide every decision Apple makes. This morning I wrote about why that matters. 

WWDC Is Finally Here, But New Macs Will Have to Wait

If you follow Apple closely, June is always a great time of year. WWDC always brings an interesting combination of the latest versions of the company’s collection of operating systems, in addition to usually bringing us at least one new device.

wwdc2020.png

According to several sources, including Jon Prosser, it’s looking like we may not see new hardware introduced at WWDC today. The two most likely Macs to see an update were the long-overdue iMac, and new ARM-based MacBooks.

Apple’s still expected to announce its transition to its own in-house A-series chips, even if it doesn’t launch a Mac powered by those chips. The iMac, in particular, would be a painful miss, unless Apple intends to still roll out an updated design later this summer or fall.

If that’s the case, I suspect that it’ll likely be just a spec-bump of the current design, instead of a complete overhaul. I have no inside information, but that’s the sense I get. If Apple doesn’t use its largest platform to roll it out, it’s probably because it’s not going to be something that the company thinks is worth taking up space during its most-watched keynote.

Watch the keynote live

Speaking of the keynote, you can watch it live today at 1 p.m. EDT/10 a.m. PDT over at www.apple.com/apple-events, on YouTube, or in the TV app on your iPhone, iPad, Mac, or AppleTV.

The North Face Says It Will Boycott Facebook

The North Face is the first big brand to say it will no longer run ads on Facebook’s platform as a result of the company’s stance on how it handles disinformation and racist content.

Credit: Shutterstock

Credit: Shutterstock

From Bloomberg:

We know that for too long harmful, racist rhetoric and misinformation has made the world unequal and unsafe, and we stand with the NAACP and the other organizations who are working to #StopHateforProfit,” the company said in an emailed statement following a Twitter posting.

I guess good for the company for voting with its advertising budget. It is, however, worth mentioning that this is the same company that hacked Wikipedia to try to get photos of its products at the top of search results for various popular outdoor locations.

Still, I don’t think this will be the last company to feel the pressure over its use of Facebook to attract customers.

Quibi's Having a Rough Go

From the Wall Street Journal:

Quibi entered the market with big financial commitments from advertisers, enviable access to cash and two brand-name corporate leaders from the worlds of movies and technology. Its promise of a new storytelling format and Quibi’s deep pockets proved irresistible for many stars. The vision was to create short programs, 10 minutes or less, that people could watch on the go.

Quibi literally could not have launched at a worse time. It’s entire reason for being is to be consumed in the in-between moments while people are on the go. Except, for much of the last three months, no one has been going anywhere.

Quibi at CES / © Jason Aten

Quibi at CES / © Jason Aten

There’s also the reality that the content on Quibi isn’t very good. It just isn’t.

You can blame the first problem on the pandemic. The content problem, however, is squarely on the quixotic streaming company that never quite convinced the world that it needed 10-minutes-or-less “quick bites,” as the name stands for.

That isn’t to say it didn’t have a fighting chance. The company raised over $1.75 billion in funding. It planned to spend more than $300 million of that on content. But you can’t buy your way out of a bad idea.

At its current pace, Quibi will sign up fewer than two million paying subscribers by the end of the app’s first year, a person familiar with its operations said, well under its original target of 7.4 million. Quibi’s app download numbers have been falling in recent weeks, according to analytics firm Sensor Tower. Daily downloads peaked at 379,000 on its April 6 launch day but didn’t exceed 20,000 on any day in the first week of June, according to Sensor Tower.

Look, there are really smart people behind Quibi, on both the content and technology sides. Meg Whitman, the CEO, is about as experienced as you can be at running tech companies. There are few people with more content credibility than Jeffrey Katzenberg. When I met with the heads of the content and technology at CES in January, I was impressed by their demo.

The problem is, no one is impressed with the content, and no one is sitting on the subway or standing in line at Starbucks for 10 minutes right now.